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Global Recession Nightmares

by Doreen Martel

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP (Gross Domestic Product). This week, around the world, Q4 GDP was released. Overall, most nations GDP showed great signs of decline as world economies continue to falter.

GDP Q4 2008

Eurozone GDP

Eurostat reported that the euro zone saw a quarterly decline in the final quarter of 2008 of 1.5%.  This number was in line with expectations.  Since records were kept beginning in 1995, this is the largest single decline.  The previous high decline was 1.3% during the final quarter of 2007.  Weak exports and declines in spending continue to push this economy further and further into recession.  The Euro is trading 1.25581 against the USD as of Thursday, March 05, 2009.

4Q GDP –1.5%

British GDP

British GDP came out slightly better than expected showing a decline of 1.5% q/q. Although lower than the 1.9% that some predicted it still means the British Economy is dangerously close to 17 years lows. The Bank of England has announced plans to print additional money to help combat the current economic crisis.   The British Pound is trading 1.40786 to the US Dollar as of Thursday, March 05, 2009.

4Q GDP –1.5%

 

Japanese 4Q GDP

The Japanese economy was the first Asian nation to slip into a recession as demand for exports decreased due to lack of global demand.  During the last 3 months of 2008, Japanese exports fell by nearly 50%.  Compounding this problem, the Japanese economy shrank by a whopping 12.7% during the last quarter. The Japanese Central Bank unfortunately has little it can do to boost their economy, as interest rates are already low at 0.1% and the Yen at a much too high ¥89 to the dollar. 

4Q GDP –12.7%

Thailand GDP

 

Experiencing a steeper decline than during the Asian financial crisis in 1997/1998, Thai Gross Domestic Product contracted by 6.1%. This decline is the steepest in Thailand’s history.  Since Thailand depends so heavily on exports for their economic security, this decline is much worse for this emerging economy.  As of Thursday, March 5, 2009 the Thai Bahat is 1.00 against 0.0276 U.S. Dollar.

4Q GDP –6.1%

Singapore

Singapore is slipping further and further in the global recession.  Forecasts are already pointing to a decline in the 1st quarter of 2009 than the steep declines faced in 2008.  In 2007, Singapore enjoyed a steep growth of 7.7% largely due to exports and they enjoyed a 1.1% increase in their overall economy.  Currently with the demand for exports down, Singapore like other countries if facing far more difficult economic times ahead.  The Singapore dollar slumped to 0.64263 against the USD on Thursday, March 05, 2009.
4Q GDP -4.2%

Italian GDP

Italy is forecasting a significant change in GDP – a fall of as much as 2.6%.   On March 3, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said they anticipate that this year and the next was “much worse” than previous forecasts. They do not anticipate Italy will come out of its current recession until “sometime” in 2010.   The Italian economy largely depends on the manufacture of high-quality consumer goods.  Most of these goods are produced by small and medium-sized business interests.
4Q GDP -2.6%

 

South African GDP

The global recession has finally made its way to the shores of South Africa.  For the first time in 10 years, South African GDP has shrunk coming out at –1.8%. This may encourage economic policy makers in South Africa to cut interest rates more aggressively and may be forced to provide financial relief to homeowners.    The South African Rand is trading 0.09505 Rand to the US Dollar as of Thursday, March 5, 2009.

4Q GDP –1.8%

Ecuadorian GDP 

The GDP numbers for Ecuador showed a larger than expected gap in government surplus of 1.2% versus the 0.1 percent for the same period last year. Revenues totaled $12.80 billion but expenditures totaled $12.18 billion compared with $7.45 billion and $7.46 billion respectively in the same period of 2007.
4Q GDP -1.2%

 

Australian GDP

 

Australia’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday reflected the worldwide downward trend.  This was significantly lower than original expectations, which anticipated an upward trend of .2%.  This decline precipitated a decline of the Japan Nikkei as well as the Hong Hang Seng Index.  Taiwan’s markets also showed a decline.  The Australian S&P/ASX 200 is reflected in a weighing down of currencies like the Euro and the New Zealand dollar. As of Thursday, March 5, 2009 the Australian Dollar is trading Australian Dollar 0.64 to the US Dollar.

4Q GDP  -0.5 

Slovakian GDP


Perhaps one of the few nations to experience growth, Slovakia showed an increase in GDP although it was slightly lower than this time last year.  During the prior quarter, the Slovak GDP increased 6.6%.  This quarter was certainly a different story.  Released on March 5, the Slovak GDP showed a modest increase of 2.5%.  Based on current prices the rise in last years 4th quarter was 4.7%.  They continue to be a developing country and they have the highest sustained GDP growth in the European Union.
4Q GDP + 2.5%

Global Recession Summary

The worldwide economic crisis continues to have an impact on trade, on US debt obligations and on the overall purchasing power of all countries.   If the decline we are seeing continues, there will be fewer goods and services that will be available for export and the cycle of recession could continue to deepen and perhaps be worsened by fears of economic depression.

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About the Author - Doreen Martel

Doreen MartelDoreen has more than 20 years in financial service industry and currently an active writer and commentator on Online Forex Trading.

One Response to “Global Recession Nightmares”

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