The Grim Reality Behind the Unemployment Numbers
by Hiland Doolittle
Since December 2007, 8,400,000 U.S. jobs have been lost. The national unemployment rate has moved from a very manageable 4.9 percent to a risky 10 percent. Not everyone is convinced we have seen the worst. And, our lofty 9.7 percent national unemployment rate is not close to the whole or true status of the nation’s workforce or frustration.
Add to the equation that the nation’s labor pool is expected to expand as the overall population continues to mount. Workers not currently receiving benefits will also join in the search for new work and with the armed services looking to pare down, major factors can sway the employment rate lower yet.
So, here we stand at 9.7 percent clear unemployment and millions more outside the system. How do we bridge the gap? How does the United States emerge from the Great Recession and begin to add workers? To simply maintain the current 9.7 percent rate, we need to generate about 85,000 new jobs per month. This is after a February where the country actually lost 35,000 more jobs.
This is no time for recalculation. This is a global crisis. The world very much needs the American consumer back on his or her feet and none too soon. It will take 292,000 new jobs per month to return unemployment to 5 percent. Even then, it will take until 2015 to attain the 5 percent goal.
In the happy hiring days of 1998-2000, the U.S. could only produce 150,000 new jobs per month. The United States has its work cut out for it and the road will not be easy. It will necessitate plenty of government incentives new-age tax breaks and a new air of political cooperation that the current legislature seems incapable of rendering.
A Local View in The Sunshine State
A look at the State of Florida shows the weakness of the current job market. Don’t be fooled by the new hires, 63,700 of which are temporary census jobs, and some easing in the construction sector. These are government based or stimulus based efforts. Simply put, the Florida economy is not moving. Once heavily reliant upon real estate and construction activity, Florida’s real estate market and development market has been devastated. More than 50 percent of homeowners are either underwater or getting there quickly.
As the stimulus funds begin to dwindle between 2010 and 2011, more out-of-work Floridians will have no choice but to return to the unemployment lines. Adding to the woes of the local economies is the sudden rise in oil prices, the perception of a tighter grip from the Federal Reserve and the uneasiness over the health care turmoil. The state is mired in political unrest, as virtually every political office is up for grabs.
Florida suffers a bloated 12.2 percent unemployment rate and without current stimulus offerings that rate would most likely exceed 14 percent. True unemployment is believed to be in the 19-20 percent range.
Floridians are looking elsewhere for work. With their homes underwater and job prospects bleak, a house here today can easily be empty and gone tomorrow. Residents simply pack and leave, onto the next job opportunity.
Health Care on Rise
In a senior-oriented environment and boasting a year round climate edge, the world of health care is one pillar of light for the Florida economy. BayCare Health System, which manages 11 area hospitals in Clearwater and employs about 18,000 workers projects adding close to 900 jobs in the near future.
The hope is that the increased health care activity will lead to new Florida markets in research and development, technology and pharmaceuticals. As hospitals convert from the outdated paper to electronic medical tracking, even more jobs will be necessitated.
The Tampa H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center & Research Institute expects to add 562 new workers to its existing 4,000 plus staff in 2010. Converting to a service economy from such a vibrant construction based-economy will be challenging for the state and for other areas seeking to invent new niches.
Florida expects change. There is a huge volume of unsold residences needing to be allocated before any new housing boom could be expected. That turnaround could well be five or six years away. Meanwhile, construction families pack their bags, and search for the next stimulus lift.
Tags: 2009 Stimulus Package, Economy, housing, unemployment, US Unemployment
About the Author - Hiland Doolittle
Hiland is a professional writer with extensive entrepreneurial experience. He is a graduate of St. George’s School Newport, RI and the State University of New York at Albany where he majored in history. He has been active in the real estate business for 30 years and has founded and sold several businesses.
Hiland currently writes for several financial sites and is a published author of the novel The Last Parade. He has recently completed a manuscript for a children’s book entitled Sami and The Minnow Man.
